Israel, Hamas, and the Middle East: An Analysis of Strategies and Implications

1. Israel’s Recent Challenges and the Context

There’s no doubt that Israel faced the biggest blow in its history 28 days ago.

The reputation of its army lies in tatters, the reputation of its intelligence superiority is gone, it’s disproportionate response and ethnic cleansing not only in gaza but in the west bank and inside Israel proper has severely damaged its reputation internationally.

Most crucially, the foundational idea upon which Israel was built — creating a nation to protect Jews who couldn't live elsewhere — has been profoundly damaged. The state has not lived up to its promise. It is in dire need for a victory to reassure its population and restore trust.

 Since victory can be measured by the objectives one hopes to achieve, Israel has been responding with vengeance on ordinary citizens.

If we apply the Israeli metric system, the casualty toll in Gaza over one month equates to four hundred 9/11s. For Israelis, victory means the complete eradication of Hamas. For Hamas, victory signifies the last man standing, even if it were the sole survivor in Gaza.

2-  Let's examine Israel's strategy.

Yesterday pentagon’s press secretary said that Washington is interested in seeing the plans of the war and is also interested in what will happen after the war. A question that has not been answered for now, probably for lack of imagination as many have already been tried.

An article written in the financial times 2 days ago stated that the IDF is still planning the next stages of the war. This indicates that the SOLE strategy Israel currently has is making life untenable in gaza, cutting food, water, electricity, especially as winter nears, hoping that thousands will flee to Egypt.

Given the extent of the failure Israel’s only way out of this is to change the statusquo forever as stated by bibi.

This can only be achieved through peace or through a full-scale military invasion of the strip in the objective of occupying it for a long period of time, engaging in a lengthy counterinsurgency campaign that will end up in establishing a governing body and diminish support for Hamas among the residents. (But we all know the result of this strategy in Iraq!)

In the meanwhile, Israel will likely lose the international support. Just today Bahrein suspended its economic ties and recalled its ambassador (which signals a Saudi move), and the trade volume between Morocco and Israel isn't substantial enough to deter Morocco from possibly following suit.

In addition, the rising death toll and the massacres being exposed will likely radicalize hundreds of thousands of people making the whole strategy counterproductive for the longterm security of Israel as stressed by the pentagon press secretary in his briefing today.

An important statistic to add to the context here is:  98% of Saudi youth oppose normalization with Israel, as published on The Economist referencing the latest 2023 Arab Youth Survey.

Soon the public opinion in Israel will realize the trouble Bibi’s policies got them in, the mounting internal pressure, combined with a lack of substantial military achievements, WILL lead to his downfall before the millitary realizes any of its objectives.

I believe benny Gantz’s chances to replacing Bibi very soon is very likely. He’s a suitable candidate that America supports, ex general, very aggressive militarily, but NOT a religious freak ideologically committed to expanding settlements.

So I hope the first part of this addressed the conspiracy theories that suggests that Israel knew about this and let this happen. It’s a hard NO.

3-    On Hamas’ strategy:

There's no doubt that Hamas' actions on October 7th transformed the region. In his first speech, Abou Obeida, Hamas’ military spokesperson, declared it the beginning of the final battle to reclaim their lands and sacred places. This indicates a well-thought-out plan, anticipating a significant change in the status quo. Hamas expected Israel to react aggressively, leading to the devastation of Gaza and the deaths of tens of thousands. This is referred to as "perfidy" in just war philosophy: manipulating rules to prevent the opponent from engaging in just warfare. In essence, it's using morality as a shield. The more Palestinian civilians are killed, the more pressure builds to end the conflict. In the long run, such civilian casualties advance their cause by garnering support, showcasing Israeli actions, and drawing international empathy.

Israel’s disproportionate response is likely to isolate Israel from the region. Normalization with the leading and most influential Arab nation now seems unattainable, with Iran poised to capitalize on this situation. 

4-    On the region:

Let’s start with Syria: there is absolutely no military capability whatsoever to engage in a war with Israel. And the regime and his allies know very well that the Israeli and the Americans will send Assad abnd his family to judgment day in case they moved against Israel.

Iran's direct involvement is limited.

The most they can do is launching few ballistic missiles as they did on American bases in Iraq few years ago, however they know the American response to this would be similar to their response in the 80s when they bombed their whole oil industry which is their single source of incomenow —Iran’s suicide drone industry was generating some cash but now the Russians are replicating them and producing them inside Russia.

Iran minister Allahyan’s tweeted on the 17th that “in the next hours the axis will do a preemptive strike on Israel” – law baddo ysir shi ken sar.

In addition, Pentagon press secretary described that increased attacks on US bases is not Unusual and separated it from the war on Gaza, indicating a move towards de-escalation.

Hezbollah:

Firstly, Hezbollah's strength has always rested on the element of surprise. Now that this element is gone, they cannot undertake any significant actions. Any invasion toward Israel is no longer feasible. The clear message to Hezbollah is that Israel will decimate Lebanon and its infrastructure if Hezbollah doesn't show restraint. Yet, Israel's Chief of General Staff conveyed, "If you restrain yourself, we will restrain ourselves."

Both Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in skirmishes across the entire Lebanese border. To date, over 40,000 people have been displaced. At least five Lebanese civilians, including Reuters Journalist Issam Abdalah, have been killed by Israeli forces, and approximately 50 Hezbollah operatives have lost their lives. The extent of the skirmishes has expanded from an initial 5 kilometers to now 20 kilometers from the border. Both sides are introducing new elements into the conflict. A few days ago, Hezbollah used a surface-to-air missile to successfully target an Israeli UAV. Today, for the first time, Hezbollah deployed drones.

While strategically, Hezbollah might not be in an ideal position to initiate a war, their military tactics resemble a traditional war progression. They started by testing limits when a group of motorcyclists was shot at by the Israeli army upon nearing the border. They evaluated Israeli readiness at the fence by sending Hamas forces to breach it and gauged the capability of Israel's Iron Dome through rockets launched by Hamas from the south. Hezbollah also targeted the intelligence tools and radar capacities of Israeli bases on the Lebanon border. These tactics have compelled Israeli forces to remain vigilant in the north, thereby stretching and pressuring the IDF.

Simultaneously, Hezbollah's media strategy starkly contrasts their approach in Syria. In Syria, they were secretive about their casualties, but since this conflict commenced, Hezbollah has openly celebrated its martyrs and publicized the number of operations they've executed, ensuring the media receives accurate information in various languages. The Secretary-General of Hezbollah even issued a communique to the media, urging them to cover all of Hezbollah's activities and announce the names of their martyrs.

Furthermore, after announcing that the Secretary-General would address the public on Friday (marking one month since the Gaza conflict began), a teaser showing the Secretary-General walking by the camera without speaking was leaked. It was later dismissed as an old video. Additionally, a voice note circulated online, suggesting that the individual who released the video was apologizing for doing so, hinting that the video did not originate from an official Hezbollah source. Hezbollah often employs this tactic to convey a message while maintaining plausible deniability – or strategic ambiguity. This strategy primarily targets a local audience, and its impact is evident on the streets. The general populace anxiously awaits news on whether they will face displacement and destruction.

I believe none of this will happen. Hezbollah’s secretary general will likely postpone doomsday.